Ghana and BRICS: Strategic Opportunity, Economic Imperative or Geopolitical Gamble?

Hon. Samuel Okudzeto Abalakwa, Ghana’s Foreign Affairs Minister, announced cabinet’s approval for Ghana’s application to join the BRICS, at a joint press briefing with India’s External Affairs Minister during his visit to Accra. The Honourable Minister linked the decision to the President’s “New Economy” agenda and the desire for Ghana to chart its own path without being constrained by the conditionalities of a few international institutions. This announcement formalises a relationship that trade data has been describing for years.

The open questions are what formal membership adds, what it might cost, and how businesses should position themselves while the process plays out. The conversation is more relevant now, as Ghana transitions from a period of macroeconomic stabilisation towards one focused on investment-led growth and structural transformation.

 Understanding BRICS and Why It Matters

What began in the early 2000s as an economic acronym coined to describe the fast-growing emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China has evolved into one of the most influential geopolitical and economic blocs in the world. South Africa joined the grouping in 2010, transforming BRIC into BRICS and providing Africa with representation within the bloc. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE later joined, followed by Indonesia in 2025, bringing membership to 11, with Nigeria and several other countries holding partner status.

The group’s main institution is the New Development Bank (NDB), headquartered in Shanghai. The bank has approved over 120 projects worth about US$40 billion and admits new members on the condition that the founding BRICS countries' capital share never falls below 55%. One stated ambition - reducing reliance on the US Dollar - remains a key aspiration yet to be realised.

BRICS today is no longer simply a forum for emerging economies. It represents a broader vision for increasing the influence of developing nations within global governance structures. For many countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America, the appeal of BRICS lies not in replacing existing global institutions, but in creating additional options. In an increasingly uncertain global environment characterised by economic fragmentation, geopolitical competition and shifting trade dynamics, diversification has become a strategic necessity.

 Why Ghana Is Looking Towards BRICS

Ghana's interest in BRICS comes at a pivotal moment in its economic journey.

Following years of economic turbulence, debt restructuring and IMF-supported reforms, the Country has made notable progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. Economic discussions are increasingly shifting from stabilisation towards growth, productivity, investment and industrialisation. Internal economic briefings and policy discussions increasingly focus on how Ghana can move from recovery to sustainable private-sector-led growth.

At the same time, the global economic environment is changing. Emerging markets are playing a larger role in global trade and investment flows, while developing countries are seeking greater influence within international institutions.

Against this backdrop, BRICS presents Ghana with an opportunity to expand its economic options.

Government officials have publicly framed the proposed membership as part of a broader strategy to diversify international partnerships and create new avenues for cooperation. This rationale aligns closely with the Country's broader ambitions around industrialisation, infrastructure development, job creation and economic transformation.

 The Economic Case for Membership

The strongest arguments in favour of Ghana joining BRICS are arguably economic rather than political. Four key areas of potential benefit to Ghana have been highlighted below:

·        Alignment with where Ghana's trade already goes: This is the strongest economic argument. In 2025, the UAE took 25.9% of Ghana's exports, India 16.0%, South Africa 10.3% and China 4.9%. All four are BRICS members, which means roughly 57% of Ghana's export earnings already flow to the bloc. On the import side, China remained Ghana's largest supplier at about 23% of imports in the fourth quarter of 2025. Membership could institutionalise relationships that are already central to Ghana's balance of payments, while opening additional channels for exports and investment promotion.

·        Development financing options: Ghana has completed a demanding IMF programme and now engages the Fund through a Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing arrangement that offers technical support and policy guidance. With no IMF money on the table, access to the NDB for infrastructure financing (energy, rail, water, digital) would widen the menu of long-tenor capital at a time when Ghana needs to finance growth. These investments will be essential if the Country is to realise its ambition of becoming a competitive industrial economy.

·        Industrial and technology partnerships: The visit by India’s External Affairs Minister itself showed what is on offer, with plans announced to deepen cooperation in railways, pharmaceuticals, ICT, defence, agriculture and science and technology. If Ghana uses membership to negotiate local value addition, such as gold refining, cocoa processing and pharmaceutical manufacturing, rather than simply more raw commodity exports, the growth dividend could be real.

·        Negotiating leverage: Being in more rooms strengthens Ghana's hand with every partner, including the Bretton Woods institutions, on debt treatment, climate finance and conditionality, amongst others.

 Lessons from Africa's BRICS Experience

To understand what BRICS membership could mean for Ghana, it is important to examine the experiences of African countries already within the bloc.

South Africa's journey offers perhaps the most relevant case study. Since joining BRICS in 2010, South Africa has used the platform to deepen trade and investment relationships, expand diplomatic influence and access development financing through the New Development Bank. The NDB's first South African loan in 2016 supported renewable energy, and the bank has since backed 13 projects there worth around US$9 billion (in current terms), including a loan of up to US$1 billion for water and sanitation infrastructure under the Municipal Infrastructure Grant programme. The lesson is that the NDB can be a meaningful infrastructure financier for a member with a strong project pipeline and capable state entities. The Country continues to benefit from this association, while simultaneously maintaining strong economic relationships with Europe and the United States.

Ethiopia, which joined in 2024, presents a cautionary story. At admission, one Ethiopian economist judged that the direct economic benefit would be modest, but that membership would improve investor perception and widen options for development finance. Ethiopian analysts have observed that the country's trade and investment ties are stronger with individual BRICS countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and India than with the bloc as a whole, and that membership has not offset the AGOA benefits and Western privileges that were lost. The Ethiopian Economics Association also warned that trading in local currencies could worsen forex constraints and complicate Dollar-based trade with other partners, recommending that Ethiopia manages it relationship with both BRICS and the West in the short run to the benefit of the country.

Perhaps the most important lesson from these experiences is that BRICS membership itself does not create economic transformation. Membership rewards countries that come with bankable projects and strong institutions, and it does not by itself replace Western market access. South Africa's gains did not emerge simply because it joined BRICS; they emerged because the country actively leveraged membership to attract investment, strengthen trade relationships and promote national economic priorities.

The challenges and considerations

While the economic opportunities are compelling, it would be naïve to assume that BRICS membership comes without risks.

·        Western Economic Relationships management is an immediate risk: The European Union, United States and United Kingdom remain among Ghana's most important development partners, export destinations and sources of foreign direct investment. President Trump has threatened additional tariffs on countries that align with what he describes as the bloc's anti-American policies. Even though Ghana’s bilateral goods trade with the US is not relatively huge, it matters disproportionately for specific sectors. With AGOA renewal and trade negotiations unsettled, the timing requires careful diplomacy. Ghana's engagement with BRICS should not be interpreted as a pivot away from the West. Such a framing creates a false choice. The world's most successful middle-income economies typically pursue diversified international relationships rather than exclusive alliances. The strategic objective should be to broaden Ghana's options, not narrow them.

·        Trade imbalance and import competition: Concerns have been raised on whether Ghana, as a largely import-driven economy, risks becoming a dumping ground for larger BRICS producers such as China. Trade defence and local-content policies must be reviewed to ensure Ghanaian manufacturers are not squeezed in the pursuit of deeper integration.

·        Choice of membership tier: The membership option being considered is of significant strategic importance. There have been questions around why Ghana is not following Nigeria's route as a BRICS partner country rather than seeking full membership. Legislators have also asked for scrutiny of the conditions attached to BRICS-linked financing. Partner status or NDB membership alone might be an option to explore, since it delivers most of the financial benefits with less geopolitical exposure.

·        BRICS cannot fix domestic constraints: As critics in the local debate have put it, BRICS cannot improve Ghana's institutions for us. Membership alone does not guarantee increased exports, investment inflows or financing. Project preparation capacity, procurement integrity, energy sector reforms and the cost of doing business will determine whether Ghana can fully exploit opportunities arising from BRICS membership.

·        Protecting hard-won credibility: Ghana's recovery is real: its credit rating has risen from restricted default to "B" with a positive outlook after five upgrades, and reserves reached about US$14.5 billion by February 2026, close to six months of import cover. Officials want the PCI to support a path toward investment-grade status. Any perception that Ghana is drifting away from the institutions and investors underpinning that recovery would carry a price in borrowing costs.

 What Does This Mean for Businesses?

For businesses operating in Ghana, BRICS membership should be viewed primarily through a commercial lens rather than a political one.

·        Export-oriented firms may find new opportunities emerging within large consumer markets such as India, China and Indonesia. Agribusinesses could benefit from stronger demand for processed agricultural products, while manufacturers may discover opportunities to integrate into broader emerging-market supply chains. Manufacturers and import substitution businesses should take the dumping concern seriously. Competitive pressures from BRICS imports should be tracked while exploring technology and joint-venture partnerships.

·        Exporters to the US and AGOA users (Apparel, Processed Cocoa, Agro Processing) face the highest near-term risk. Scenarios around non renewal of AGOA and higher tariffs should be modelled, while analysing diversification towards the EU and AfCFTA markets. The Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) and other trade chambers should lead discussions with institutions such as the Ghana Export Promotion Authority (GEPA) to ensure that the right negotiations are underway to secure favourable terms.

·        Financial institutions should closely monitor developments around trade finance, cross-border payment systems and potential financing mechanisms linked to BRICS institutions. Strengthening compliance frameworks will be key, as banks and other financial institutions may play a role in co-financing or on-lending NDB facilities.

·        Technology companies may also benefit. Several BRICS economies have become global leaders in digital innovation, fintech development and technology-enabled services. Stronger cooperation could facilitate technology transfer, investment partnerships and market expansion opportunities for Ghanaian firms.

Businesses should however avoid making major strategic decisions based solely on anticipated membership. The most successful firms will be those that begin proactively studying emerging market opportunities, understanding regulatory environments and building commercial relationships well before any formal accession is completed.

 What Should Investors Watch?

For investors evaluating Ghana, the significance of BRICS membership will ultimately depend less on the membership itself and more on how it influences policy, investment flows and economic reform.

Several questions will be particularly important.

·        Will Ghana successfully leverage membership to attract productive investment into priority sectors?

·        Will access to alternative financing accelerate critical infrastructure development?

·        Can the country strengthen manufacturing and export competitiveness?

·        Will policymakers maintain a stable and predictable investment climate?

·        And perhaps most importantly, can Ghana enhance its relationships with BRICS members while retaining the confidence of its traditional partners?

The answers to these questions will determine whether BRICS becomes a transformational platform or merely a symbolic affiliation.

 A Defining Test of Strategic Positioning

Ghana's interest in BRICS reflects a broader reality about the changing structure of the global economy. Economic influence is becoming more dispersed, emerging markets are becoming increasingly important, and countries are seeking greater flexibility in how they engage internationally.

In this environment, Ghana's decision should not be viewed as a choice between East and West, North and South, or old and new alliances. Rather, it represents an attempt to position the Country within a more complex and interconnected global economy.

The greatest economic opportunities rarely arise from choosing sides. They arise from cultivating diverse partnerships, maintaining strategic flexibility and aligning international engagement with national development goals.

If Ghana proceeds with BRICS membership, success will not be measured by the admission announcement or diplomatic symbolism. Success will be measured by whether the move leads to greater investment, stronger exports, improved infrastructure, more competitive industries and better jobs for Ghanaians.

Ultimately, BRICS can provide a platform. Whether that platform becomes a catalyst for transformation or simply another diplomatic affiliation will depend on the quality of Ghana's economic strategy, the consistency of its reforms and the ambition with which both government and business choose to engage with the opportunity.

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, STRATEGY & OPERATIONS, MANAGEMENT CONSULTING, KPMG IN GHANA

Osei Owusu-Ansah Junior is a strategy and transformation leader with experience across Ghana, Sierra Leone, The Gambia and Liberia. At KPMG in Ghana, he helps organisations navigate complexity, sharpen performance and unlock growth. His expertise sits at the powerful intersection of strategy, operations and enterprise-wide transformation.